What could Trump’s Hollywood plan mean for the UK?
ScreenPower: where TV and Film meet politics and power
Hello and welcome to ScreenPower: a newsletter about the UK’s film and TV industries - and how they’re impacted by politics.
In today’s edition:
The LA fires couldn’t have come at a worse time for Hollywood - I look at what it means for the entertainment industry there….
Meanwhile Donald Trump says he wants to make Hollywood great again - but is he the hero Hollywood needs right now - and could his plans pose risks for the UK?
Also British content is at risk according to one of Britain’s top TV execs. Jane Featherstone gave some striking evidence to MPs about the state of TV in the UK - I’ve summarised the key parts…
And Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy has revealed more of her thinking on the BBC Licence Fee - but ruled out using a key source of funding.
Here we go…
🇺🇸 What could Trump’s Hollywood plan mean for the UK?
Donald Trump has set his sights on Hollywood, in a way that could have a knock-on impact for the UK’s film and TV industry.
The President-elect took to Truth Social on Thursday, announcing three ‘Special Ambassadors’ and promising to ‘bring Hollywood back…bigger better and stronger than ever before’. This was his message in full:
In the spirit of taking Trump ‘seriously but not literally’ the second time around, let’s try to unpack some of that.
🇺🇸 ‘A very troubled place’
It’s hard to know to what extent Trump was referring to the devastation caused by this month’s fires (more on that below) - or something more cultural. He - and the Republican Party - definitely have ‘previous’ with the entertainment industry.
This excellent FT piece by Christopher Grimes (written before the fires) assesses what Trump 2.0 could mean for Hollywood and is a useful reminder of recent flashpoints, including the Disney/DeSantis battle over Florida’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law and tensions surrounding the recent Trump biopic ‘The Apprentice’. Also don’t forget his 2024 election opponent Kamala Harris lives in the upscale LA neighbourhood of Brentwood and is married to an entertainment lawyer.
But some of those broader tensions have already begun to cool. The Chief Exec of Warner Bros Discovery has said Trump could be positive for dealmaking in the industry - and ABC News (owned by Disney) recently settled a defamation lawsuit with Trump by paying $15m to his Presidential Library fund.
🇺🇸 ‘Hollywood has lost much business to foreign countries’:
This is where it could get interesting for the UK - but it depends what he means by ‘lost business’, and what he plans to do about it.
If he means that a large number of big budget productions devised in Hollywood are shot overseas to the benefit of foreign countries, he’s right - and the UK is at the top of that list.
But: The profits from most of those productions go back to US companies - and in the majority of cases they’re more profitable for having been shot in countries with attractive tax incentives. In theory Trump could dramatically increase incentives in the US to onshore some of that foreign production activity - which could impact us. The current incentive at federal level is pretty modest - though there are a number of states (e.g. New York, Georgia, Louisiana) that are globally competitive.
British strengths: The UK is top of the pile for US productions looking to shoot overseas - and that’s about more than just tax. Factors like our highly skilled workforce and top notch studio infrastructure are also part of the appeal. But with cost pressures bearing down across the industry, big budget film and TV is a numbers game right now. This is one to watch closely.
Glass half full: Of course the other way of looking at this is that a Hollywood ‘bigger better and stronger than ever before’ can also be good news for those creative economies (like ours) that are dependent on it and most feel the effects of its successes.
🇺🇸 ‘Ambassadors’
The announcement about Voight, Gibson and Stallone grabbed the headlines - but don’t expect a strategy anytime soon. Freedom loving film star Mel Gibson said he hadn’t even been asked before Trump announced it, telling Variety: “I got the tweet at the same time as all of you and was just as surprised. Nevertheless, I heed the call. My duty as a citizen is to give any help and insight I can.”
How the LA fires are impacting the film industry
The California fires have had a devastating human impact - but have also come at a terrible time for the entertainment industry there.
Hollywood has faced multiple challenges in recent years: from the covid pandemic, to the writer and actors strikes, to the restructuring of the streaming industry, and lay offs at companies like Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery.
There’s a lot been written in recent days about the impact the disaster is having - and could have - on the TV and film industry. Here’s a summary:
Production: Last week a number of productions were halted, according to the Hollywood Reporter, including Grey’s Anatomy and Suits LA. While some of these have now restarted, the LA Times has spoken to studio executives who say ‘it may be a while before people are ready to talk about new projects; some pitch meetings previously scheduled have been put on hold.’
Jobs: Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw writes that the fires could force people to leave and not return: “The recession in Hollywood over the last few years and job losses are starting to push people away. LA’s share of scripted TV production has declined for three years in a row. Other states, including Georgia, New York and Nevada, are luring productions, as are the UK and Australia. The fires may accelerate the exodus.” Unemployment in California’s screen industry was hovering around 20% at the end of last year according to the LA times.
Awards season: Some events have been delayed (the Critics Choice Awards and Oscar nominations have both been pushed back), but a debate is ongoing about whether big ceremonies should take place at all. Stephen King said Academy Awards bosses should cancel the ceremony currently due to take place on 2nd March. “No glitz with Los Angeles on fire”, the author said on social media. Worth saying there is pretty strong push back to these calls - largely on the basis that these ceremonies, and the surrounding parties/events, employ thousands of people in all sorts of jobs aside from the ‘glitz’ you see on screen.
More tax relief for California: The LA times reports that the suffering felt by the sector as a result of the fires could mean California state legislators are more likely to approve an increase in the state’s film tax incentive scheme (also see story above re Trump). It’s been championed by Governor Gavin Newsom, who says the ‘ambitious’ increase “would position California as the top state for capped film incentive programs, surpassing other states like New York”.
⚠️ ‘British content is at risk’
That was the stark warning from one of Britain’s top TV execs, as she gave evidence to MPs on the House of Commons Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee about the future of British film and high end TV.
Who? Jane Featherstone (above) is co-founder of Sister Pictures - one of the UK’s leading Indies - and a globally respected producer of high quality international drama (including Chernobyl, Broadchurch, and Black Doves).
Testimony: Her evidence to MPs was fascinating, and covered a lot of ground, including warnings that:
💥The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are being priced out of quality drama.
💥Uniquely British content is at risk - partly because the demand from streamers is for shows that have global appeal.
💥The shows that provided the training grounds for aspiring British writers, directors, producers and crews are disappearing.
💥Producers aren't entrepreneurs anymore - and the TV sector has "effectively gone from being a manufacturing industry to a service industry in respect to the streamers".
You can read my full summary of Jane’s evidence for ScreenPower readers here (you’re welcome).
💡‘Creative and radical thinking’ on the BBC Licence Fee
Some interesting comments yesterday from Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy regarding the BBC Charter Review…
Everything is on the table: In her morning media round, Nandy said the Government is “thinking radically and creatively” about the future of the BBC - and that they are ‘considering all options’ in relation to funding.
Except that: Although she did rule out using general taxation as a funding mechanism.
She also described the licence fee as “deeply regressive” and “insufficient” for meeting the BBC’s needs.
Committed (ish): Creative thinking is welcome. But as I wrote last month, it’s worth noting that the Government appear to be edging further away from the promise the PM made in the week after taking office to stick with the Licence Fee.
You can watch a clip from Nandy’s BBC Breakfast interview here:
A few more DCMS things:
🎢 Universal Studios…Bedford: This had completely passed me by until this week. Comcast have bought a 476 patch of land to explore the potential of building a ‘theme park and resort experience’ just south of Bedford. Creative Industries Minister Sir Chris Bryant was asked about it in the Commons on Thursday. He revealed that the “negotiations” regarding the project were going well - and said he was hopeful that “this will be absolutely transformational for the British tourism industry if we manage to pull it off”.
💰 Cash for the BFI’s Global Screen Fund: Yesterday Nandy also announced £7m for the UK Global Screen Fund, which is administered by the BFI and designed to support the international competitiveness of UK screen content. The Culture Sec was in Gateshead for a conference of creative industry folk, where she unveiled £60m of funding for a range of cultural projects.
🌎 Soft Power Council: DCMS and the Foreign Office have jointly announced the creation of the UK Soft Power Council to think more staretgucally about how to strengthen and promote British soft power assets. This is welcome - and I’ll definitely be returning to this topic very soon. The full membership list of the council is here. It’s pretty light on screen industry expertise (although BBC Studios is represented, and Sir Peter Bazalgette obvs has lots of TV experience). Also no one from gaming, which is a big miss IMHO.
📺 What to watch…
Thanks to some time off over Christmas and a bit of travel, I’ve been watching a lot lately. Here are a few strong recommendations:
The Agency - Paramount: This a moody, gritty spy thriller starring Michael Fassbender and Richard Gere (where’s he been?!) - and produced by George Clooney. It’s mostly based around the London HQ of the CIA - which it reasonably assumes is inside the US Embassy in Vauxhall. Londoners will enjoy lots of familiar locations. Think Homeland but in Nine Elms.
Nobody Wants This - Netflix: I hoovered this up in a small number of days. After five minutes I thought it was pretty basic - but after ten I was hooked. Kristen Bell and Adam Brody star in this warm, soft focus, funny(ish) rom com with beautiful interiors.
Music By John Williams - Disney: I’m a huge film score fan - and so this documentary about composer John Williams was a joy to watch. It’s produced by Steven Spielberg, and hits all the right notes (sorry). It also delves a little into Williams’ personal life - and explores the tragedy that informed some of his most famous work.
7/7: The London Bombings - BBC: An excellent and pretty harrowing four part series about the 7th July 2005 terror attacks, told largely from the perspective pf victims and first responders whose lives were changed forever that day.
Conclave - in cinemas: A thoroughly enjoyable political thriller based on the Robert Harris novel, with a cracking performance by Ralph Fiennes. This papal pic also stars John Lithgow (he’s always amazing - ‘The Old Man’ on Disney is also a must watch) and Stanley -’Italian on both sides’- Tucci. Clocking in at a disciplined 2 hours, this keeps your attention and packs a few surprises along the way. Its 12 BAFTA noms are well-deserved.
🙏Thank you
📰 Thank you for reading ScreenPower! As ever, do get in touch with any comments or questions on the topics covered in this issue, either by replying to this email or by connecting on LinkedIn.
📢 Also a shout out to the winners of the ‘spot to the Christmas movie title’ in the last edition. Jonathan Banks, Alistair Pike, and my Dad all got (close to) top marks! The full list was Die Hard, The Holiday, Nightmare Before Christmas, Bridget Jones, Love Actually, Bad Santa, Its A Wonderful Life, and Trading Places
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